CAPITAL GRAVITY

Using a bespoke ‘capital gravity’ model, we have been able to forecast the likely flows of capital between countries, as well as their estimated sizes for 2021. Due to the dramatic impacts COVID-19 has had on real estate investment and global mobility, we predict that cross-border flows to safe-haven locations and flows between ‘near-neighbours’ are set to dominate, led by investment from Canada to the US and from the US to the UK. We have also examined real estate transactions from 2016, many of which would have been financed over five years, and so have predicted the types of assets coming to market over the next year. We also note that, in a climate of flatter returns on investment, changes in currency and hedging benefits may divert investment flows to cross-border markets that offer such extra gains from real estate transactions.

CAPITAL GRAVITY

Using a bespoke ‘capital gravity’ model, we have been able to forecast the likely flows of capital between countries, as well as their estimated sizes for 2021. Due to the dramatic impacts COVID-19 has had on real estate investment and global mobility, we predict that cross-border flows to safe-haven locations and flows between ‘near-neighbours’ are set to dominate, led by investment from Canada to the US and from the US to the UK. We have also examined real estate transactions from 2016, many of which would have been financed over five years, and so have predicted the types of assets coming to market over the next year. We also note that, in a climate of flatter returns on investment, changes in currency and hedging benefits may divert investment flows to cross-border markets that offer such extra gains from real estate transactions.